Fitch Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook this month, holding the assessment steady through a period of regional conflict and disrupted trade.
The report contains both directions of the story.
What Held
The banking system operated through the war without support measures from the central bank. Non-performing loans stand at 1.1 percent and Tier 1 capital at 19.2 percent, both improved from 2024.
When the Strait of Hormuz closed, crude exports continued through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. Fitch cited this as a key factor in maintaining oil revenues during the disruption.
Government debt is projected at 41.3 percent of GDP by the end of 2028, against a median of 58.1 percent for similarly rated countries.
What It Cost
Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 0.6 percent this year, the direct result of the Hormuz closure and reduced oil volumes. Oil production is expected to average 9 million barrels per day, below last year's level.
The fiscal picture tightens further out. Fitch projects the deficit widening to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2027 as oil prices soften, consistent with a fiscal breakeven of 94 dollars per barrel. Debt rises from 31.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2025 to the projected 41.3 percent three years later.
Growth is forecast to rebound in 2027 as shipping through the Strait normalizes, then ease to 2.9 percent in 2028.
Where the Rating Sits
Saudi Arabia holds Aa3 from Moody's, A+ from Fitch, and A from S&P. The affirmation keeps the Kingdom in the upper investment-grade band. It signals no expected pressure toward upgrade or downgrade over the next twelve to eighteen months.